суббота, марта 25, 2006

Tulip Revolution

March 24th is a holiday now in Kyrgyzstan and it may not be a good thing. The anniversary of last years revolution isn’t exactly full of fond memories for everyone. On one hand the revolution was a relatively peaceful transition of power. Askar Akayev, a holdover from Soviet days was replaced by Bakiev who appeared to enjoy considerable popular support, particularly in southern Kyrgyzstan. On the other hand, there was considerable looting and damage to downtown Bishkek. Bakiev also appeared to have paid many in the crowd for their support. Now, one year later he appears to be no less corrupt than his predecessor and lacking vision.

Is the holiday a celebration of the people’s victory or an attempt to justify and consolidate Bakiev’s rule? Let’s just say I wouldn’t be surprised if things don’t go as planned for the president.

The bad news is the mood in Bishkek concerning March 24th was tense at the end of January during my last visit. March 24th will be even more tense. Kygyzstan has been compared recently to the poorest nations in Africa because it has a ton of debt, apparently. The cautious and those with a relative degree of wealth or stability in their lives will most likely stay home. The question is: will anyone else show up? Are there enough people angry with nothing to lose to make a difference? I doubt Bakiev will decline to use force (like Akayev chose to) if they decide to make their voices heard.

That is what makes this March 24th in Kyrgyzstan an important day.

The good news is most people (at least in Bishkek) have more to lose than to gain by another revolution. It’s one thing to shout your disappointments about your government but quite another to replace it. The good news is Kyrgyzstan is still Kyrgyzstan with or without Akayev and Bakiev. Pray for Kyrgyzstan.

Beautiful and mountainous, corrupt and poor. I love it.